Average daily change in the total number of people in the hospital because of COVID-19, per 100,000 population, as a dashed line (green for Colorado, red for New Mexico). The average number of people dying each day because of COVID-19, per 100,000 population, is shown as a solid line (again, green for Colorado, red for New Mexico). Created by Nels Hoffman
The daily change in the total number of people either dead or in the hospital because of COVID-19, per 100,000 population, in Colorado (green dots) and New Mexico (yellow dots). The 5-day moving average of the rate is shown as a black line for each state. This is the average rate over a 5-day interval centered on the line. For each state, the black line in the second figure is the sum of the two lines (dashed for hospitalization rate, solid for death rate) for that state in the first figure. The dots show how the reported daily rates fluctuate strongly from day to day. That’s why it’s helpful to look at average rates instead. Created by Nels Hoffman
By NELS HOFFMAN
Los Alamos
The net rate at which people are going into hospitals in Colorado and New Mexico, because of COVID-19, has been gradually decreasing over the last week. But death rates have been increasing recently. For the past three days, more people have been dying than going into the hospital in New Mexico, because of COVID-19.
The first figure above shows the average daily change in the total number of people in the hospital because of COVID-19, per 100,000 population, as a dashed line (green for Colorado, red for New Mexico). The average number of people dying each day because of COVID-19, per 100,000 population, is shown as a solid line (again, green for Colorado, red for New Mexico). The averages are calculated over a 5-day interval centered on the line. On April 12-14, the death rate exceeded the hospitalization rate in New Mexico. On April 12 and April 14, the New Mexico death rate reached record levels.
The second figure above shows the daily change in the total number of people either dead or in the hospital because of COVID-19, per 100,000 population, in Colorado (green dots) and New Mexico (yellow dots). The 5-day moving average of the rate is shown as a black line for each state. This is the average rate over a 5-day interval centered on the line. For each state, the black line in the second figure is the sum of the two lines (dashed for hospitalization rate, solid for death rate) for that state in the first figure. The dots show how the reported daily rates fluctuate strongly from day to day. That’s why it’s helpful to look at average rates instead.
The hospitalization rate is the difference between the rate at which people are going into the hospital and the rate at which they are released from the hospital. If more people go out than go in, the rate can be less than zero, as happened in New Mexico on April 4.
Data come from the health departments of the two states: https://cv.nmhealth.org/newsroom/ , https://cv.nmhealth.org/, and https://covid19.colorado.gov/case-data.
