In Colorado, the 5-day rate of positives dropped as low as 3.5% in mid-June, but recently climbed to over 7%. In New Mexico, the 5-day rate of positives was down to 2.5% in mid-June, but recently went as high as 5%. So yes, the rate of positives did show a marked increase in these two states, during roughly the first week of July, implying that the disease was spreading more rapidly – although part of the rise may result from increased bias of the tested sample, towards people showing symptoms.

But now, although it’s too early to know for sure, there are signs that the growth is reversing. The 5-day average has declined, for the past four days in New Mexico and the past two days in Colorado. Whether this trend will continue remains to be seen.

For reference, below are plots showing the daily change in the number of new positives and in the number of tests, for both Colorado and New Mexico. It’s the ratio of these daily changes that is plotted as a percentage in the figure above. Solid lines are 5-day centered averages.