Cumulative number of positive tests in the 30 other counties of New Mexico, the cumulative number of positive tests in Sandoval, San Juan and McKinley Counties and the cumulative number of positive tests in New Mexico. Created by Marv Alme

By MARV ALME
Los Alamos

Except in the Northwest corner of New Mexico, the currently implemented stay-at-home policy is working well. 

Unfortunately, over the past three days, the number of new COVID-19 positive tests in Sandoval, San Juan and McKinley counties has been 70-75 percent of the total number of new COVID-19 positive tests in New Mexico. (See the fourth slide here).

In the above figure, we have plotted the cumulative number of positive tests in the 30 other counties of New Mexico, the cumulative number of positive tests in Sandoval, San Juan and McKinley Counties and the cumulative number of positive tests in New Mexico. 

We see that the doubling time for the 30 counties has increased to 21.6 days, which means an increase of only 3.3 percent per day. The doubling time for all of  New has increased to 11.8 days, which is the lowest growth rate since the onset of the pandemic in New Mexico. 

In the Northwest corner of the state, the doubling time is 7.6 days. McKinley County, the hardest hit county in New Mexico, is currently experiencing a 3.9 day doubling time.

In this analysis, as before, we prefer to simply fit exponential functions to a few data points. This is because the daily reports of new positive tests vary significantly due to systematic variations in the Department of Health testing and reporting process. 

Finally, Santa Fe County continues its successful response to COVID-19, with a recent doubling time of 53 days. In the past 10 days, 16 positive test results have been reported for Santa Fe County. Hence we estimate that of the 78 individuals who have tested positive in Santa Fe County, about 62 have recovered, leaving about 16 with active COVD-19.