BY JOHN DAVEY
Los Alamos

Los Alamos Community,

I am frustrated by our government’s (federal, state, and local) lack of leadership on dealing with the communication of the scientific reality of this pandemic.

I see on TV media hour by hour tabulation of numbers infected and numbers of deaths. I’ve watched Federal and State governmental representatives declaring we are on top of the virus by showing the infection rate going down in certain states.

In reality, we are not “on top of the virus” but rather we are simply slowing the spread of this contagious virus in some states. Being “on top of the virus” to me is increasing immunity in the population.

Slowing and controlling the spread of the virus is important but doing this by shutting down the economy and socially isolating people and families at home could eventually result in many tens of thousands of deaths due to suicides, domestic violence, job loss, home loss, divorces, exploding levels of depression and mental illness, school closures, and a general unraveling of our interpersonal and economic societal structure.

We need leadership showing us a path forward that we can implement to reach the “light at the end of the tunnel”. “Getting on top of the virus” should mean achieving substantial immunity in our population such that the virus spread in under control and our economy and social life can become more “normalized”.

Immunity is achieved by our body’s immune system developing antibodies and other virus fighting mechanisms specific to the COVID-19 virus. And as I understand it, there are only two ways this can be achieved. One way is with a man-made vaccine, which I understand might be developed, tested, and available by sometime in 2021. I don’t think our economy and society’s social health can survive that long and return to a normal state.

The second way is by exposure to COVID-19, which could lead to an increased death rate if not done in a scientifically appropriate manner. However, if a local government and local community medical system were to conduct a coordinated/controlled immunity development program where a limited number of low at-risk volunteers (say 10 percent of local community population) were exposed at a time, then quarantined at home with local medical facility testing/monitoring and immediate hospitalization/treatment if required, until they were tested to be non-contagious, we could start increasing the immunity in the local population.

Immunity developed by exposure or with a vaccine may not be 100 percent but it would probably be at some significant level and might later be increased by a vaccination booster or re-exposure. The controlled exposure approach would, at least have us doing something in order to increase population immunity.

These are my thoughts. Perhaps there are things I am overlooking and caveats I haven’t considered. But simply waiting for a vaccine magic bullet, while our economy and social structure crumbles around us is not problem solving but wishful thinking.