Significant Monsoon Burst Pattern Through Weekend

NOAA News:

Nowcast as of 9:11 PM MDT includes showers and thunderstorms will continue through the evening. A broad area of showers blanketing San Miguel County will move across Interstate 25 from Romeroville to Wagon Mound…and across Trujillo…Trementina…Bell Ranch…Conchas Lake State Park…and N.M. 104.
 
Storms crossing into northern Sandoval County will move toward Fenton Lake State Park…Jemez Springs…and across State Road 4. Expect lightning and downpours along with some hail and gusts to 40 mph as these storms move through. Heavier rains will fill arroyos and ditches and block low water crossings. Elsewhere…expect occasional lightning and rainfall up to a tenth of an inch in scattered showers through the evening.

A very moist air mass will remain in place through the weekend as a significant monsoon burst pattern develops. Slow-moving storms capable of torrential rainfall will increase the risk of flash flooding significantly, particularly over and below burn scars and areas that have already received heavy rainfall this week. 

Thunderstorms will be most numerous near and west of the central mountain chain this afternoon and tonight,  with heavy rainfall possible especially for the southwest mountains/upper Gila region, west-central mountains and the Sangre de Cristos. Storm coverage and flash flood potential will expand to include more of the area Friday into the weekend.

Key Impacts:

  •  A very high flash flood threat will remain for area burn scars through the weekend, as well as for areas that have already received significant rainfall this week. Rainfall rates between 1 and 2 inches per hour can be expected with any strong storm.
  • The latest 5-day total precipitation forecast calls for an additional 1-3″ for many areas of the western two-thirds of New Mexico with locally higher amounts up to near 5″ possible through Sunday night,  especially WC & SW areas and locations in and near the central mountain chain.
  • Thursday PM:  Flash flood-producing thunderstorms will favor the Continental Divide,  Upper Gila and central mountain chain this afternoon and tonight.  Some thunderstorms will be capable of hail and damaging wind gusts.
  • Friday: Thunderstorms will be most numerous from the southwest mountains/Upper Gila to central and northeast areas of the state.  Overall coverage forecast to ramp up for central and northern areas.  Some thunderstorms will be capable of hail and damaging wind gusts.
  • Weekend:  Scattered to numerous thunderstorms favoring  central and western areas.

Overview:

Robust monsoon moisture plume expected to stream northward over central and western parts of New Mexico during the next 24-48 hours as a subtropical low slowly drifts west of New Mexico.  Weak steering winds aloft will favor torrential downpours (primarily over Southwestern NM) with any strong thunderstorms and rainfall rates could approach 2 inches per hour.

 

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