The Roundhouse in Santa Fe. Post file photo
By Milan Simonich
The Santa Fe New Mexican
Maybe the New Mexico Bounce qualifies as a trend. Maybe not. We’ll know soon enough.
The Bounce has nothing to do with pop culture or the price of oil. I made up the term. It’s shorthand for how the party out of power for eight years rebounded three times this century to win the Governor’s Office.
Origins of the Bounce began in the 1990s with Republican Gary Johnson. He was a newcomer to politics who ousted Bruce King, New Mexico’s longest-serving governor. King, a Democrat, won three nonconsecutive terms before losing to Johnson in 1994.
Johnson was reelected in 1998, but his popularity plummeted during his second term. He favored legalization of drugs, angering other Republicans and many Democrats and independents. Worse, Johnson seemed more interested in climbing mountains than managing the state bureaucracy.
Democrat Bill Richardson, a former congressman and federal Cabinet secretary, succeeded Johnson. Richardson easily won the governor’s race in 2002. He was reelected with a staggering 69% of the vote, but everything soured after that. Richardson set aside state obligations to run for president in 2008. His campaign collapsed, and financial scandals in his gubernatorial administration diminished his reputation.
Republican Susana Martinez followed Richardson. Her background in government was thin, limited to service as district attorney of Doña Ana County. That turned into an advantage. Voters wanted a candidate unlike globetrotting Richardson. Martinez won a second term, but her approval ratings plunged. A boozy holiday party turned her into a punch line, and she stopped making any pretense of working with the Legislature.
Martinez’s decline made life easy for Democrat Michelle Lujan Grisham, who gave up a seat in Congress to run for governor. Lujan Grisham won her first term in a rout. Her reelection was closer, and her second term has been rocky enough that she’s publicly blamed Democratic lawmakers for scuttling her crime-fighting agenda. Truth is, Lujan Grisham’s redundant and poorly conceived crime bills deserved to be ignored during a special session last year.
New Mexico’s Republican Party has to hope the Bounce still exists. Disorganized and dry of talent, Republicans haven’t won a statewide election since 2016, when Judy Nakamura captured a seat on the New Mexico Supreme Court.
Despite that futility, former state Rep. Phelps Anderson of Roswell believes the pendulum of state politics could swing all the way back to the GOP in the 2026 governor’s election. The breakthroughs by Richardson, Martinez and Lujan Grisham tell him it’s more than possible.
Anderson isn’t being biased. He was driven out of the Republican Party for following his conscience. He sided with Democrats on a high-profile bill in 2021, voting to repeal an old law criminalizing abortion. Anderson ended his legislative career as an independent.
Yogi Berra supposedly said you can observe a lot just by watching. What I see is different from Anderson’s view. Odds are against Republicans returning to power this round.
For starters, midterm elections are shaping up well for Democrats because of President Donald Trump. Everything from Trump’s embrace of Russia and Elon Musk to the price of eggs will damage his party.
Trump’s allies in red caps aren’t capable of winning a statewide race. And for all the bragging about Trump’s showing in New Mexico last year, little changed. He lost the state for the third consecutive presidential election, and Democrats swept the congressional races.
The Democratic base would be energized if Trump were to endorse one of his acolytes for governor. Republicans are in a bind even if Trump ignores the gubernatorial race, as he did two years ago when former television meteorologist Mark Ronchetti was the GOP nominee.
Republicans also have beaten down competent politicians. Anderson was one. Former state Rep. Jason Harper, R-Rio Rancho, was another. With a Ph.D. in chemical engineering and an engaging personality, Harper might have become a contender for statewide office.
His Republican colleagues in the state House of Representatives seemed to recognize talent when they elected Harper as their whip in 2023. Then they ousted him on only the 10th day of the legislative session. No reason was given publicly for Harper’s removal. His deficiency seemed to be a willingness to listen to the other side.
The Republican bench is empty of quality candidates for governor. The party could seek out retreads such as John Sanchez, a loser to Richardson in 2002, or Yvette Herrell, who’s lost two congressional elections in succession and three of the four she’s entered.
Another option is to look for another Gary Johnson, someone short on political experience but blessed with brains and charisma.
More likely, the Republicans will be left with something more fragile than bone china. They will have to hope the other side is undone by overconfidence or scandal.
